Nottingham Forest's Surprising Run Revisited
Four months ago, we covered Nottingham Forest’s surprising rise to third place. With just nine games remaining, they are still holding that position, proving their success is no fluke. We dive back into our grades and metrics to take another look at their season.
You shall not pass
The numbers still tell the same story as earlier in the season. Forest are content to concede possession, conserving energy by avoiding high pressing and instead waiting until the opposition reaches their defensive third before applying intense pressure.
Forest have spent the least amount of time in possession in the Premier League this season and adopt a low-energy defensive approach when out of possession. They rank last in the league for sprinting and high-speed running distance without the ball, as well as in pressures applied in the opponent’s third, pressing on just 36.2% of possessions in that area.
However, when the ball reaches the midfield third, Forest’s defensive strategy shifts. While they still rank 18th in total pressures, they excel in disrupting passing lanes, ranking 4th in the league in that category. Chris Wood and Morgan Gibbs-White play a key role here, ranking second and third respectively in passing lane pressures in the middle third.
This passive approach completely flips when the ball enters their defensive third, where Forest become one of the most aggressive pressing teams in the league. They apply pressure on 86.5% of possessions in their own third - the highest rate in the Premier League. Full backs Ola Aina and Neco Williams, along with centre midfielder Elliot Anderson, are key contributors with all three ranking in the top 11 for defensive third pressures.
This intense defensive pressure is proving effective. Despite facing the sixth-most shots in the league, they have allowed just 38 clear chances (second only to Arsenal). Additionally, their relentless defensive approach may be frustrating opponents into poor decisions, as 35.8% of shots taken against Forest were deemed to have been attempted with a better option available (second only to Liverpool with 36.3%).
Last line of defense
Forest’s defensive efforts have been outstanding, conceding just 38 clear chances this season (second-best mark in the league). Even more impressively, only four of those have resulted in goals, translating to a 10.5% conversion rate - by far the best in the league and well below the league average of 31%, or even second-placed Liverpool (25%).
A major factor behind this defensive solidity has been goalkeeper Matz Sels. The Belgian shot-stopper leads the league with 12 clean sheets and boasts the highest shot-stopping grade at 90.1. Of the 136 shots he has faced, 34 have received positive grades, with just one earning a negative mark - a reflection of his remarkable consistency.
Looking at the performance outside of shot stopping, Sels has also been rock-solid winning 91.7% of his challenges, second only to Newcastle’s Nick Pope (94.4%). On the ball, Sels is the only goalkeeper that has not played a pass that lead to a dangerous position for the opposing team (for keepers who played more than 10 games), but is also the keeper with the highest amount of clearances still landing to a potential dangerous position against them, the data suggests there could be some variance here.
The lieutenant at the back
As a unit, Nottingham Forest’s back line has been highly effective. Ola Aina and Neco Williams rank among the Premier League’s top five full-backs in tackles won percentage, while Murillo has excelled both in the air (10th in aerial duel grade) and when defending dribbles (5th in win rate). However, the standout performer has been Nikola Milenkovic.
The Serbian has been a rock at the back, combining strength in tackling with an aerial presence. His challenge grade of 88.0 ranks third in the league, and he sits among the top defenders in multiple categories: third in tackles won (50.6%), fourth in aerial duels won (66.7%), and seventh in 50/50 duels won (74.2%).
Milenkovic has also been a valuable asset at set pieces. He is the seventh most targeted centre-back on crosses, with an impressive 48.3% completion rate (second in the league). This aerial ability has resulted in the fifth-most headed shots overall and the most among centre-backs.
Target man on target
Chris Wood has been a focal point of Nottingham Forest’s attack, perfectly suited to their direct, low-possession style. Forest attempt fewer passes than any other team in the Premier League. However, when they do pass, they play with purpose - leading the league in forward pass percentage and aerial duel creation. As a result, Wood has contested more aerial duels than any other player this season (365), surpassing second-placed Dominic Calvert-Lewin by over 100 (261). Unsurprisingly, he also leads the league in flick-ons and ranks fourth both in total cross targets and crosses completed leading to a half-chance.
Forest’s emphasis on aerial play makes perfect sense, given Wood’s dominance in the air. His 95.1 headed shot grade is the highest in the league, and his 91.8 overall shooting grade (3rd overall) highlights his effectiveness in various situations. He has received the ball in a half-chance opportunity 29 times this season (10th most in the league) and has capitalized on 39% of them - ranking 3rd overall and 1st among centre-forwards. When given a clear chance, Wood remains clinical, converting 68% of those opportunities - trailing only Alexander Isak among centre-forwards.
So, how does he score so many goals? By making them unstoppable for the goalkeeper, 23.1% of Wood’s shots are classified as “unsaveable.” The highest in the league and highlighting his precision and power in front of goal.
Forest go marching on
Nottingham Forest fans have plenty to be happy about. The team has embraced a clear identity and it is paying off. Nottingham Forest are not just surviving in the Premier League - they are thriving, and a European spot is now within reach.
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