PFF FC Shot Stopping Grade Explained
This is the second in a series of posts we plan to make explaining how our grading works. At PFF FC we grade every player involved in every event (both on & off the ball) with over 2,000 grades awarded per game in 25 different grade categories.
In our last article we covered the basics of grading before taking a more detailed look at how we grade passes. In this article we’re going to cover shot stopping.
For those of you that read the last article I’ll skip over the grading basics explanation & dive straight into the specifics of Shot Stopping. For those of you that missed the first article, that can be found here.
How we Grade Shot Stopping
To award a positive shot stopping grade we are looking for a save that showcases at least one of a few things:
Good reactions (mostly from short range shots but this can also be a factor when the keeper is unsighted)
Covering a substantial portion of the goal when diving
Engaging at the right time & using the correct technique in a 1v1 situation
To earn larger positive grades a save might showcase multiple of the things above, such as good reactions & covering a substantial portion of the goal or more extreme versions of those things, covering a substantial portion of the goal or showcasing good reactions to stop a near certain goal.
On the negative side we are looking for things such as:
Errors in technique (such as false steps when diving)
Weak hands when attempting to make a save
Poor choice of technique in a 1v1 situation
To earn the worst negative grades we are looking at serious errors on shots that shouldn’t result in goals (for those old enough think Massimo Taibi’s infamous goal conceded against Southampton at Old Trafford, link below for our younger audience)
Traditional Data vs. PFF FC Player Grades
Now that you all have an understanding of how we grade shot stopping, let’s have a look at some Data & Grades.
Goalkeeping has long been an area that has been poorly represented with traditional data, things like Clean Sheets & Goals Conceded are better measures of team quality than a goalkeeper's individual performance. Saves are also influenced by team quality, the more shots you face the more opportunities you have to make a save, Save % goes some way to normalise that but lacks context around the quality of the shot. Looking at those more traditional metrics below throws up 10 different names out of a possible 12 when looking at the top performers this season. That in itself proves the point that these probably aren’t the best predictors of performance.
*Data from Goalkeepers that have played a minimum 1000 minutes so far this season, up to GW24
So lets have a look at those 10 names & see where they rank in our Shot Stopping Grades this season:
1. Matz Sels, 90.1
3. Lukasz Fabianski, 81.7
4. Guglielmo Vicario, 79.5
5. Jordan Pickford, 78.0
6. David Raya, 77.8
10. Ederson, 74.4
11. Mark Flekken, 74.0
14. Kepa, 72.2
16. Alisson, 69.3
18. Arijanet Muric, 68.1
*The rankings here are among 26 Goalkeepers with a minimum of 35 graded events.
As you can see there’s a real variety in grades among the top performers in traditional metrics. So let’s dive into the grade profiles of a couple of these players. First up I want to have a look at Alisson, he is widely considered to be the best Goalkeeper in the Premier League & was one of two players that showed up twice in the top performers list so why is he relatively lowly ranked in our Shot Stopping Grade?
Okay, this is an interesting case, Alisson is one of just three qualifying Goalkeepers who has not received a negative grade so far this season, however he also ranks 22nd in the % of Positive grades received. So while he leads the league in Goals Conceded & Save % his grade profile suggests that a large proportion of those saves were from shots that you would expect to be saved. This correlates with our grading system that ranks average/as expected performance in the 60-70 range, with Alisson’s shot-stopping grade this season being 69.3.
Next up lets look at the other Goalkeeper that appeared twice in the top performers list & also sits atop our Shot Stopping Grades this season, Matz Sels.
Like Alisson, Matz Sels has not received a negative grade so far this season, however he has done this on more than double the number of events. He has also recorded the most Positive grades so far this season & ranks 3rd in the % of Positive Grades received, just 0.3% behind 1st place (Lukasz Fabianski). This combination of avoiding mistakes & making beyond expected saves at a league leading level explains why he is our highest-graded shot stopper to this point of the season (GW 24).
Grading Examples
Finally, let’s have a look at some examples.
First up we have January’s Save of the Month from Martin Dubravka. Dubravka closes the space well & makes a good choice in using the spread technique in a central 1v1 situation forcing Strand Larsen to avoid him if he is going to score, which he is unable to do. For this we award a +0.5 grade to Dubravka whilst Strand Larsen gets a -1.0 shooting grade as we would expect him to score in this position.
Next we have Lukasz Fabianski’s last second save vs Nottingham Forest. This is a good example of what we are looking for to award positive grades from diving saves. Fabianksi covers a large portion of the goal to pick the ball out of the top corner from Sosa’s shot. Here Fabianski receives a +1.0 grade whilst Sosa gets a +1.0 shooting grade, he can’t do much better from a shot in this position & is denied a goal by an incredible effort from Fabianski.
Finally we have what is likely the favourite for save of the season from Emi Martinez. This is an incredible example of what we are looking for from reaction saves. Martinez has such little time to react that he has to claw the ball back off of the line after it is already past him from Dominguez’s header. For this we award Martinez with a +1.0 grade while Dominguez gets a 0.0 shooting grade as the shot gives Martinez an opportunity to make a save.
I hope you’ve found this article informative, if you’re interested in finding out how we take the raw +/- grades & convert them into our 0-100 grades check out this article here.
This article was crafted using PFF FC Player grades. If you're affiliated with a club, media outlet, or agency and would like to explore its capabilities, feel free to contact us at sales-fc@pff.com to arrange a demo.